How can SULs use 'What-if' analysis in RM?

• A. By brainstorming potential hazards at each mission step and examining consequences to identify overlooked risks.
• B. By performing only quantitative risk calculations.
• C. By ignoring unlikely hazards to save time.
• D. By focusing only on hazards already identified.

Answer: (A)

What-if analysis is a proactive way to surface hazards by walking through the mission step by step and asking what could go wrong at each point. For SULs, this means brainstorming potential hazards at every phase of the plan and then examining the possible consequences of those deviations or failures. This approach helps you catch risks that might be overlooked during normal planning because it deliberately explores a wide range of possibilities, including unlikely but plausible scenarios, and ties each one to what could happen and what controls might be needed.

This method yields actionable insight for mitigation before you execute, such as adjusting procedures, adding checks, or training focus areas. It’s not limited to numerical risk calculations; it’s about exploring scenarios, understanding consequences, and identifying gaps in existing controls. It also benefits from being collaborative, drawing on diverse perspectives to ensure a thorough surface of hazards.

In short, the strongest use of What-if analysis for RM is to brainstorm potential hazards at each mission step and examine the consequences to identify overlooked risks, enabling better planning and safer, more reliable operations.